Brent’s crude oil is expected to receive $ 82 per barrel by the end of the year, analysts warning of the new volatility while US President Donald Trump threatens radical sanctions against Russia – risks that could convert on the world markets and push prices to three digits.
The oil market analysts have told Ani that climbing geopolitical tensions, in particular Trump’s ultimatum to Russia during the Ukraine War, could provide a supply shock with long -term consequences. NS Ramaswamy, head of goods and CRM in Ventura, said that Brent (October 25) has a short -term target of $ 76, with potential to reach $ 82 by the end of 2025, unless a steep drop below the $ 69 support level. Brut WTI (September 25) should also go from $ 69.65 to $ 76.
The concern of the market stems from Trump’s announcement of new sanctions and 100% secondary prices on countries continuing trade with Russia – measures that would directly affect the main Russian gross buyers.
Narendra Taneja, a main energy analyst, warned that “Russia exports 5 million barrels per day to the global system. If this flow is disrupted, crude could increase at $ 100 to $ 120 per barrel. ” He said India would not face supply shortages – thanks to supply in more than 40 countries, but consumer prices would increase.
India refineries remain dependent on reduced Russian barrels, which have helped to balance domestic inflation since 2022. If they are forced to pivot quickly, they should pay a bonus on alternative supplies or cope with higher prices on the export markets.
The global market is also limited by a limited spare production capacity. Even with OPEC + or Saudi Arabia speaking, delays are likely. A sustained price peak could follow 2026, according to experts.
Despite the objective indicated by President Trump to reduce oil prices, any increase in American production faces obstacles of time and resources. Infrastructure, labor shortages and investment costs will delay alleviating.
The United States-EU trade agreement and the American-Chinese truce have added a certain stability, but analysts remain cautious. Inventory levels and the next rate of rate of the American federal reserve are also closely monitored, with a stronger dollar adding pressure to oil prices.
