The Buffalo Bills will try to avoid losing first place in the AFC East when they travel to Atlanta on Monday night to take on the Falcons, who have been one of the most unpredictable teams through the first quarter of the NFL season.
At 4-1, the Bills are just a half-game ahead of the surprising New England Patriots, who handed Buffalo its first loss of the season on a last-second field goal last week. The Falcons bounced back for an impressive win over the Washington Commanders after a disconcerting 30-0 shutout loss to Carolina.
CHANCES AND TRENDS
Although the Falcons are at home and well-rested after their bye week, the Bills are a consensus 3.5-point favorite. This includes BetRivers, where Buffalo was backed by 62 percent of the spread line money and 78 percent of the total bets.
Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games as an underdog against AFC teams. In contrast, Buffalo has won seven of its last eight games following a loss, and the Bills’ -200 money line at BetRivers to win the game drew 93 percent of the money and 94 percent of the total bets.
The 50-point total line has also been a popular play, with the Over drawing 85 percent of the money. This is despite the fact that each of the Falcons’ last nine home games against AFC opponents have gone below the point total line.
CHOICE OF ACCESSORIES
–Bills QB Josh Allen 15+ Rushing Yards (-750 at DraftKings): This is the most popular player prop in the game, followed by Allen rushing for 25+ yards at -240. Although Allen isn’t taking off on the ground as much as in his first few seasons, he’s still averaging 42.5 rushing yards per game this season and has had at least 25 in each.
–Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-167 at BetRivers): Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in five straight home games and faces a Bills defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in allowing an average of 145.6 rushing yards per game.
THE NEWS
It’s been more than a calendar year since Buffalo’s last losing streak, and the road won’t get any easier on Monday. Atlanta leads the NFL in total defense (244 yards per game) and boasts a promising backfield duo of Robinson and quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
“(Robinson) seems like a real contender,” Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott said. “Very explosive. Very good football player and really hard to stop. He looks like he has a really bright future. … (Penix) knows the offense like the back of his hand. He is extremely detailed in the way he runs his offense and certainly has a great running game to go along with the talent and skill he brings.”
Monday will mark Allen’s first game in Atlanta in more than seven seasons. The Falcons are one of three teams he has faced just once, along with the Panthers and Chicago Bears.
After a 14-day break, Atlanta will look for a milestone victory in its first “Monday Night Football” home game in seven years. The Falcons defeated the New York Giants 23-20 on October 22, 2018.
The Falcons’ defense has been far from their strong suit for several years, but Atlanta’s identity has changed over the course of four games under Jeff Ulbrich — the team’s fourth defensive coordinator in as many years.
“On defense, we play fast. We play physical,” Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said. “We’re a good tackle team. They’re competitive, which I love.”
As the defense attempts to help Atlanta secure its first winning streak this season, the unit will face its biggest test: trying to slow down Buffalo’s Allen, a three-time Pro Bowl selection. Allen passed for 1,217 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions, and rushed 40 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns in five games.
“He’s become arguably the best player in the league,” Morris said. “It’s definitely a challenge for us, but it’s something we embrace, something we enjoy.”
INJURY REPORT
Atlanta will get a key member of its defense back, as cornerback AJ Terrell is expected to return for the first time since being out with a hamstring injury in the Falcons’ Week 2 win over the Minnesota Vikings. He participated fully in Saturday’s training.
Injured wide receiver Darnell Mooney (hamstring) was ruled out before the game after not practicing all week. Cornerback Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) and defensive tackle LaCale London (triceps) were also ruled out for Atlanta.
Buffalo, meanwhile, placed safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) and rookie defensive tackle TJ Sanders (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.
Star linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) escaped IR, but was still ruled out for Monday.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and wide receiver Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) are questionable after being limited participants in practice throughout the week.
THEY SAID IT
“The message after a loss is to continue to trust our process, to not focus too much on the results. Obviously, we didn’t play as well as we would have liked last week, and that’s going to happen. Fortunately, we still have one more week. We have a chance to play Monday night in a really fun environment in Atlanta with a team that is coming off a bow but is playing really good football. It’s an opportunity for us to take a step in the right direction.” – Allen, who has a career record of 80-35 as a starter.
PREDICTION
There has been a Jekyll & Hyde element to the start of the Falcons’ season. They’re rested and home after a bye week, so that should serve Atlanta well. The Falcons also enter with the league’s highest-rated defense in yards allowed, averaging just 244.0 per game, so expect this to be a tough test if Penix plays well on the other side of the ball. Ultimately, the edge comes down to Allen’s ability to make critical plays with the game on the line. — Bills 27, Hawks 24
–Field level media
