The IMF indicates to the growth in growth in exercise 26 as commercial tensions, tariff risk to be forged
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its forecast for global growth, but warned against a potential slowdown in exercise 26, citing increased trade tensions, budgetary vulnerabilities and geopolitical uncertainty.
In its latest update of global economic prospects, the IMF now projects global GDP to increase to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, both slightly above April estimates, but still below the growth of 3.3% recorded in 2024 and the pre-Pandemic average of 3.7%.
The increase in projections reflects a stronger than expected commercial activity, improved financial conditions due to a lower US dollar and the temporary suspension of new prices.
But the IMF warns that this front loading momentum could fade by 2026. Commercial uncertainty remains high, especially since the American break on pricing hikes initially extended until August 10 is in addition to the expiration. The letters sent by the American administration to business partners threaten even higher prices, release the fears of a protectionist spiral.
For emerging and developing economies, growth remains relatively resilient, providing for 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. India should increase to 6.4% in the two years, supported by a more benign external environment, while China’s prospects were revised up to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026 due to the solid rates and first step.
However, the IMF warns that “high uncertainty” and fragmented commercial negotiations could distort supply chains and slow down investments. A scenario where tariff rates come back to April levels or increase could shave 0.2 percentage points on the growth of 2025, estimates the report.
Persistent budgetary deficits, especially in the United States, and geopolitical shocks renewed in the Middle East or in Ukraine could also tighten global financial conditions and revive inflationary pressures.
In the midst of these worldwide winds, the national fundamentals of India seem stable, according to the monthly economic journal of the Ministry of Finance for June 2025, published on Monday. He notes that the first quarter of exercise 26 shows resilient supply and demand, inflation in the target and monsoons progressing well.
