We came across a bullish thesis on The Boeing Company on the Boudreau Capital Newsletter substack by Nicolas Boudreau. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BA. The Boeing Company’s stock was trading at $217.08 as of September 29. BA’s forward P/E was 71.43 according to Yahoo Finance.
Boeing has faced significant challenges in recent years, including COVID-19 disruptions, 737 Max 8 quality issues and certification delays for the 777X and Max 7/10, but recent leadership changes under CEO Kelly Otterberg, appointed in August 2024, have paved the way for a turnaround. Otterberg’s tenure focused on resolving the commercial operations strike, improving aircraft quality, and advancing the 777X certification process.
First half 2025 results reflect early progress, with revenue up 26% to $42 billion and 280 commercial deliveries, led by 209 737 Max 8s. Although commercial operating margins remain negative at –5.8%, this is a marked improvement from –17.4% in the first half of 2024, largely due to stable 737 production Max, which is capped at 38 by the FAA but is expected to reach 42 later this year. Production of wide-body aircraft, particularly the 787, is increasing by up to 10 per month, while 767 and 777 freighters continue at steady rates through 2027.
On the defense side, Boeing is addressing historic risks from fixed-cost contracts by moving to cost-plus deals, exemplified by the F-47 fighter win, with margins in BDS expected to increase from 2.1% to 9-10%, in line with peers like Lockheed Martin. Boeing Global Services remains a reliable cash generator with margins of 19.9% on revenue of $10.4 billion. Debt was reduced to $44.6 billion from $52.5 billion in 2024, driven by the sale of $10.55 billion in digital aviation solutions and a capital increase in 2024, while free cash flow trended positive in Q4 2025.
Strategically, Boeing is shifting its culture toward engineering excellence, revamping the C-suite and pursuing critical certifications for the 777X and Max 10/7 variants. Combined with the acquisition of Spirit Aerospace for fuselage quality and Airbus’ production constraints, Boeing is poised to regain market share in the widebody and single-aisle segments. With business margins improving and free cash flow accelerating, the stock has an attractive 40-60% upside over the next 2-3 years, supported by production ramps, certification milestones and structural improvements across the business.
Previously we covered a bullish thesis on The Boeing Company (BA) by DeepValue Capital in March 2025, which highlighted its strong backlog, leadership changes under Kelly Otterberg, and potential $10 billion in free cash flow. The company’s shares have appreciated about 22% since our coverage. The thesis is still relevant today and Nicolas Boudreau shares a similar perspective but places emphasis on the results of the first half of 2025, production ramps and certification stages as short-term catalysts.
