World Sugar #11 March New York (SBH26) is down -0.44 (-2.80%) today and ICE White Sugar London #5 December (SWZ25) is down -13.10 (-2.93%).
Sugar prices are falling today, with NY Sugar hitting the lowest futures near 4.5 years from last month and London Sugar posting a new low of 4.25 years. Prospects for a robust global sugar supply are weighing on prices. Last Monday, BMI Group forecast a global sugar surplus for 2025/26 of 10.5 MMT, and last Tuesday, Covrig Analytics forecast a global sugar surplus for 2025/25 of 4.1 MMT.
Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past seven months due to signs of increased sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Thursday that sugar production in South-Central Brazil during the second half of September increased by +10.8% year-on-year to reach 3,137 MT. Furthermore, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazilian sugar mills during the second half of September increased to 51.17%, compared to 47.73% in the same period last year. Additionally, cumulative South Central sugar production for 2025-26 through September increased by +0.8% YoY to 33,524 MMT.
Prospects for increased sugar exports from India are negative for sugar prices as heavy monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, the Indian Meteorological Department reported that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the highest monsoon in five years. On June 2, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Mills of India projected that India’s sugar production for 2025/26 would increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, citing greater area planted to sugarcane. This would follow a -17.5% year-on-year decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25, to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Another bearish factor for sugar has been sugar trader Sucden’s recent claim that India could divert 4 MMT of sugar to produce ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to reduce the country’s sugar surplus and could prompt Indian sugar mills to export up to 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. India is the world’s second largest producer of sugar.
The outlook for increased sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices after Thai Sugar Miller Corp forecast on October 1 that Thailand’s sugar harvest for 2025/26 would increase +5% year-on-year to 10.5 MMT. On May 2, the Thai Cane and Sugar Bureau reported that Thai sugar production for 2024/25 increased by +14% year-on-year to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third largest sugar producer and second largest sugar exporter.
