The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.49% today, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.46%. E-mini S&P December futures (ESZ25) are down -0.24% and E-mini Nasdaq December futures (NQZ25) are down -0.16%.
U.S. stock indexes are facing downward pressure today ahead of key news this week, including a series of delayed U.S. economic reports and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. Stocks are getting some underlying support from a +4% rise in Alphabet after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company.
Markets are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report after Wednesday’s close for further insight into AI’s prospects. Additionally, earnings from Walmart, Target and Home Depot this week will provide insight into the health of consumer spending.
The US economic calendar this week is very busy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released. On Tuesday, we will feature ADP’s weekly employment report, the New York Fed’s American Business Leaders Survey, industrial production, the November NAHB housing index, August factory orders and August durable goods orders. Wednesday brings the weekly MBA mortgage applications, the August trade balance and the minutes of the October FOMC meeting. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, the September unemployment report, the Philadelphia Fed report, October existing home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Friday brings actual earnings, U.S. S&P manufacturing and services PMI reports, U.S. consumer confidence from the University of Michigan and services activity from the Kansas City Fed. Other delayed U.S. economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days, but have not yet been scheduled.
Today’s economic news was supportive for stocks as the Nov Empire Manufacturing General Business Conditions Survey unexpectedly rose +8.0 to a one-year high of 18.7, stronger than expectations for a decline to 5.8.
Markets are pricing in a 41% chance of another -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
The third quarter corporate earnings season is coming to an end as 460 of the S&P 500 companies have released their results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of S&P 500 companies beat forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021. Third-quarter earnings rose +14.6%, more than double expectations of +7.2% year over year.
Foreign stock markets are down today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.75%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.46%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a one-week low and closed down -0.10%.
Interest rate
December 10-year Treasury bonds (ZNZ5) are up +3.5 ticks today. The yield on the 10-year T-note is down -1.6 bps to 4.133%. Treasuries are slightly higher today on speculation that long-delayed U.S. economic news due this week will show economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures, which could allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Treasuries were weakened by news that Nov Empire’s general manufacturing survey unexpectedly hit a one-year high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.
European government bond yields are falling today. The yield on the 10-year German Bund is down -1.0 bps to 2.710%. The UK 10-year gilt yield rose from a one-month high of 4.589% and is down -3.1bps at 4.543%.
The European Commission raised its Eurozone GDP forecast for 2025 to +1.3% from a May forecast of +0.9% and kept its Eurozone inflation forecast for 2025 unchanged from May at +2.1%.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said risks to financial stability “remain high given uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and the ultimate impact of tariffs in a volatile international environment.”
Swaps predict a 3% probability that the ECB will cut rates by -25 basis points at its next policy meeting on December 18.
Stock movers in the United States
Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +4% and leading the Nasdaq 100 gainers after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +2%. On the other hand, Magnificent Seven’s other stocks are trading lower with losses of more than -2% at Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN).
Amazon.com (AMZN) is trading lower after Bloomberg reported the company is seeking to raise $12 billion through its first U.S. bond sales in three years, suggesting an intention to accelerate spending in AI and other areas.
Chip stocks are mixed today. Micron Technology (MU) rose over +4% in early trading after Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target on the stock from $250 to $300, but has since given up some of those gains and is now up over +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT), Arm Holdings (ARM), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are also up more than +1%. On the negative side, Qualcomm (QCOM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -2%.
Crypto stocks are trading lower due to Bitcoin (^BTCUSD)’s current -1.5% decline to a new 7-month low. Coinbase (COIN) is down over -5% and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down over -4%.
Zymeworks (ZYME) is up +30% and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) is up more than +20% after their collaboration on an investigational combination therapy for stomach and esophageal cancer showed early results from a late-stage trial.
Rubrik (RBRK) is down more than -1%, although Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a $97 price target.
Gap (GAP) is down more than -1% even though Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a $30 price target.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is up over +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $166 price target.
Aramark (ARMK) is down more than -5% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $5.05 billion, below consensus of $5.17 billion.
Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -6%, putting it at the top of the S&P 500 losers after being doubly downgraded by Morgan Stanley from underweight to overweight with a $110 price target.
HP Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from overweight to equal weight.
Sealed Air Corp (SEE) is down more than -3% after Stifel downgraded the stock from buy.
HP Inc (HPQ) is down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley lowered the stock’s rating from underweight to equal weight with a $24 price target.
Income Reports (11/17/2025)
Aramark (Armk), Helmerich & Payne Inc (HP), i3 Verticals Inc (IIV), j & j Snack Foods Corp (JJSF), James Hardie Industry PLC (JHX), Lifemd Inc (LFMD), XP Inc (XP).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data contained in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
