Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Thursday as markets digested renewed hope for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and prepared for a key OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday.
At the time of writing, front-month West Texas Intermediate was down about 0.55% to $58.33 per barrel:
Likewise, Brent Crude fell 0.48% and is trading around $62.83:
The recent weakness follows a slight gain in Wednesday’s session, when prices rebounded from one-month lows, but analysts warned that those increases were likely due to short-selling covering and technical buying rather than a change in fundamentals.
The most important development in oil markets this week is the apparent progress in a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. US envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week, while Ukraine has reportedly agreed to a peace deal with only minor details to be ironed out. The prospect of a peace deal releasing additional supplies of Russian crude and increasing already large global stocks is expected to continue to weigh on prices throughout the week.
Although there is hope for an increase in demand linked to falling US interest rates or seasonal factors, the long-term outlook appears tilted towards oversupply, in line with recent assessments projecting a surplus in 2026.
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting adds another layer of uncertainty. Market participants will closely monitor any signals regarding production quotas or production strategy that could either support prices or reinforce downward pressure. Currently, it is expected that the group will not change its first quarter production policy or change the production levels of the entire group for 2026.
Although trading is expected to remain weak through Thanksgiving, crude appears vulnerable to further declines unless a clear demand catalyst emerges.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
More important reading on Oilprice.com
Oilprice Intelligence brings you the signals before they hit the headlines. This is the same expert analysis read by seasoned traders and policy advisors. Get it for free, twice a week, and you’ll always know why the market is moving before anyone else.
You get the geopolitical intelligence, hidden inventory data, and market rumors that move billions – and we’ll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, on us, just for subscribing. Join over 400,000 readers today. Access it immediately by clicking here.
