The current conflict between India and Pakistan has already imposed significant economic charges on the two countries. On the military front, three main cost components are distinguished: air strikes, extended drone deployments and high levels of combat preparation.
Assuming that the Indian Air Force (IAF) performs approximately 100 outings per day using Rafale, Mirage 2000, SU-30MKI and Tejas, the estimated fuel and the operational cost per sorting is around $ 80,000. If guided precision ammunition (PGM) such as scalp, EG, Spice 2000, Hammer and laser guided bombers (LGBS) are used – at a rate of 30 to 40 ammunition per day – individual weapons costs vary from $ 100,000 to $ 1.1 million. Over a four -week period, the total cost of sustained air strikes could reach around $ 6 billion.
For India, the daily deployment of approximately 30 unmanned air systems – including HAROP and IAI AUA LOITERING ammunition, as well as HERON and SEARCHER drones – supported by ISR operations, logistics and electronic war assets (EW), causes substantial expenses. Taking into account the attrition and replacement of UAVs, the bandwidth by satellite, soil control stations (GCS) and interfering capacities, the estimated cost could reach $ 100 million per day – totaling nearly $ 3 billion over a period of four weeks.
For India, the daily use of 10 Brahmos missiles – launched from air, land or sea – alongside 10 to 20 pralay ballistic missiles or guided MLRs per precision, would result in an expense estimated at 150 million dollars per day. Over a four -week period, this would amount to around $ 4.5 billion.
In the “increased preparation” category, the daily costs are substantial. The mobilization of troops and fuel consumption are estimated at $ 40 million per day. Maintaining air defense systems – including S -400, Akash and Barak -8 – adds an additional $ 20 million per day.
The preparation of the naval fleet for oriental and Western naval orders contributes to an additional $ 50 million per day. Combined, these preparation expenses total around $ 5.4 billion over a period of four weeks.
For Pakistan Air Force (PAF), the combined cost of air strikes and sustained aerial combat patrols is estimated at more than $ 25 million a day, or about $ 1 billion over a period of four weeks. Drone operations, assuming the deployment of Bayraktar Turkish systems as well as the use of missiles such as RA’AD and HATF-VII, should cost additional $ 450 million.
For Pakistan, increased preparation and borders alert – encompassing troop movements, fuel consumption, radar activation, air missile deployments (SAM) and mobilization of intelligence assets and signals (SIGINT) – are estimated at $ 15 million per day, totaling around $ 450 million over a four -week period.
For India, in addition to direct military expenditure, wider economic benefits include four major categories of costs. First, GDP disruption is estimated at $ 150 billion. Second, the volatility of the financial market and the depreciation of currencies could cause losses up to $ 90 billion. Third, commercial disruptions and supply chain breakdowns will cause losses of around $ 80 billion. Fourth, direct foreign investment entries (IDE) will reduce around $ 100 billion.
For Pakistan, the indirect economic impact of the conflict will also be substantial. The disturbance of GDP – resulting from interrupted economic activity and overall economic uncertainty – is estimated at 25 billion dollars.
Instability of the financial market and depreciation of currencies, $ 15 billion. The disturbances of the commercial and supply chain around $ 12 billion. In addition, IDE entries and IMF losses of $ 5 billion. Overall, for Pakistan and India, the total cost of the conflict over a period of four weeks should exceed $ 500 billion.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
