The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally had its full assessment of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget leaked online just hours before she was due to speak. The report, titled Economic and Fiscal Outlook, was briefly available before being withdrawn, although it is normally only published after the Chancellor has completed her statement to Parliament.
OBR recognizes leak ahead of budget
Reeves began his speech by pointing out that the Independent Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally released its budget analysis early. She told MPs: “This is deeply disappointing and a serious mistake on their part.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility has already made a statement taking full responsibility for this breach.”
UK gambling tax set to be increased in budget
The leak revealed a major detail. The gaming industry is set to see a significant tax increase, expected to bring in £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) by 2029-30. According to the OBR, “Several changes to green fees were announced in the Budget, which are overall expected to raise £1.1 billion by 2029-30. »
This includes a steep increase in remote gaming tax “from 21% to 40%” from April 2026, and the creation of a new general betting tax of 25% for online gaming from April 2027. The document confirms that “self-service betting terminals, spread betting, pool betting and horse racing” will be exempt. Bingo fees will be waived at the current rate of 10 percent.
“The government has also announced a freeze on gaming fee bands on casino games in 2026-27 with the usual RPI. [retail price index – inflation] a subsequent revaluation. »
The news hit gaming values almost immediately. By 1245 GMT, Ladbrokes owner Entain had slipped 2.9% to 725.60p, while Evoque plc, formerly 888 Holdings, had fallen 12.4% to 32.75p.
Constraints with data
The foreword highlights that although officials engaged constructively, there were constraints, stating: “Policy cost information on the direct budgetary effects of some measures was received late and without sufficient detail. »
More generally, the OBR says the economic outlook has become “more challenging and uncertain”, with real GDP growth now expected to reach just 1 per cent this year and inflation expected to peak at 3.7 per cent in mid-2025. Debt is expected to remain near 96 percent of GDP throughout the forecast period, and the tax burden is on track to reach a record high of 37.7 percent of GDP by 2027-2028.
Despite this leak, the report confirms that the government is still respecting its budgetary rules, but only just. The OBR highlights that the reserve against the budget mandate is just £9.9 billion in 2029-30, calling this “a third of the average” that chancellors have kept in reserve since 2010.
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