The trade war with China has been tough on Nvidia Corp. investors. (NASDAQ:NVDA). In April, shares hit a year-to-date low below $87 apiece. Like its fellow Magnificent 7 members, Nvidia has struggled due to economic uncertainties regarding the effects of tariffs, as well as Chinese AI innovations. The bears saw Nvidia shares falling further due to downward pressure from the broader market. Still, some investors remain optimistic about a lasting rebound, and that seems to have been the case of late. The stock returned to all-time highs as some tariff fears dissipated and macroeconomic data improved, and Nvidia became the first $5 trillion market cap company.
(NASDAQ: NVDA) continues to recover from its lowest level since the beginning of the year.
With the AI darling now trading at an all-time high, many are wondering where Nvidia stock could go next.
This analysis examines three scenarios and shows where Nvidia stock could be in 2030.
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The bearish argument that prevailed on Wall Street at the start of this year has not completely disappeared, however. While AI’s rally may continue, it remains speculative, while the reasons for Nvidia’s stock decline in the spring were real. Given challenges such as being effectively shut out of China, Nvidia may still find itself at a crossroads at present. We don’t know for sure where the stock will go next, but with the data available we can speculate. That’s what we do here.
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Will Nvidia continue to dominate AI?
1. AI Infrastructure Dominance: Nvidia controls around 80% of the AI accelerator market thanks to its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem. It is difficult for Nvidia customers to switch to another provider. This has allowed the company to dominate the industry, with customers returning year after year. As such, it is well-positioned to capture growth in the $400 billion AI chip market forecast for 2030.
2. Data Center Expansion: Its data center revenue grew from $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023 to more than $35.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Maintaining leadership in this area requires continued innovation in GPU architecture and power efficiency as AI workloads increase exponentially. So far, Nvidia has managed to do this.
3. Preservation of margins: One of the main arguments against Nvidia is that it may not be able to maintain its huge margins as its competitors catch up and become more attractive to Nvidia’s customers. This hasn’t happened yet and Nvidia has maintained its grip on the market quite well. In turn, this helped the company have industry-leading gross margins of 73% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.
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Will it reach new highs or fall further?
24/7 Wall St. estimates that Nvidia’s stock price in 2030 will be $491 per share in our bull case, $265 in our base case, and $38 in our bear case. This would represent increases of 161.1% and 40.9%, respectively, and a decrease of 79.8% from current levels. Each of these estimates is derived from a specific scenario analysis of Nvidia’s business segments.
The assumptions for our bullish case are as follows:
Growth of AI: Nvidia currently has around 80% of the AI accelerator market. Analysts predict that this dominance could continue thanks to the adoption of the Blackwell GPU and the CUDA software gap. This could allow data center revenues to grow at a CAGR of 25%, reaching $351 billion by 2030, up from $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Gross margins could remain above 70% due to limited competition in high-end AI training chips.
Automotive and robotics: A 50% CAGR in automotive revenue, to $25 billion by 2030, is achievable if Level 4 autonomy achieves even a 15-20% penetration rate.
Software: CUDA already represents a large part of Nvidia’s moat, but that could get even better if the AI narrative succeeds in the long term. Nvidia could potentially move to a SaaS model once more developers rely on it.
All things considered, $491 per share is possible, with net income of around $240 billion if all that revenue materializes and margins hold up. Investors will still have to pay a multiple of 50x TTM earnings for the stock. The market capitalization would be $12 trillion.
The likelihood of this happening is pretty low, considering how much ground Nvidia would need to cover.
The assumptions of our base scenario are as follows:
Growth of AI: Data center revenue can grow at 15% CAGR to over $230 billion by 2030. If Nvidia maintains a 60-65% market share here, it could achieve that goal, especially if its competitors continue to fall behind.
Narrative success of AI: The AI narrative would still need to succeed for Nvidia to reach our base price of $241. Otherwise, there would be no growth and investors would quickly reduce the growth premium in favor of a discount.
Nvidia’s valuation for the base case would be $8.9 trillion. We highly recommend reading this stock price prediction for a more detailed analysis of our base case.
You may have noticed the big gap between the base case and the bear case. This is mainly because the bearish scenario assumes that the AI narrative would fail.
If that happens, the result would be catastrophic for Nvidia and its stock. The only reason the stock is trading at such a high valuation is because the company is directly tied to AI and its prospects. Without this, it will once again become known as a gaming GPU company with ties to crypto mining.
However, this scenario is unlikely. The demand for AI is not going to disappear overnight. However, what may happen is that AI development slows down. As a result, Nvidia would also slow down. It needs continued orders from hyperscalers and AI startups to maintain momentum and strong margins. If AI slows down and companies are no longer willing to run massive AI models at a loss, they are also unlikely to upgrade their GPUs to what Nvidia has to offer. This would reduce Nvidia’s margins and turn revenue growth red, and investors would no longer pay a growth premium for the stock. $38 for such a scenario is reasonable, if not a bit high, given that it would leave Nvidia with a valuation of $932 billion.
Regardless, our benchmark remains at $241 for 2030.
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