The Pentagon launched an examination of the agreement on the submarine of Aukus 2021 with the United Kingdom and Australia, throwing the safety pact in doubt at a time of increased tension with China.
The examination to determine if the United States should remove the project is led by Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official who previously expressed skepticism about Aukus, according to six familiar people with the issue.
The end of the development agreement for submarines and advanced technologies would destroy a security cooperation pillar between the allies. The review sparked anxiety in London and Canberra.
While Akus has received solid support from American legislators and experts, some criticisms say that could undermine the security of the country because the navy has trouble producing more American submarines as the threat of Beijing increases.
Australia and Great Britain should co-produce a class of attack submarines known as SSN-AUKUS which will enter service in the early 2040s.
But the United States has undertaken to sell up to five Virginia class submarines in Australia from 2032 to fill the gap while it removes its current ship from ships.
This commitment would almost certainly be launched if the United States retired from Aukus.
Last year, Colby wrote on X that he was skeptical of Aukus and that he “would be crazy” for the United States to have fewer nuclear propulsion attacks, known as SSNS, in the case of a conflict on Taiwan.
In March, Colby said it would be “brilliant” for Australia to have SSNs, but warned that there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the years to come” and that the American SSN would be “absolutely essential” to defend Taiwan.
The skeptics of the nuclear technology sharing pact also wondered if the United States should help Australia obtain submarines without an explicit commitment to use them in a war with China.
Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state of the Biden administration who was the American architect of Aukus, stressed last year the importance of Australia having SSN who could work closely with the United States in the case of a war against Taiwan. But Canberra did not publicly link the need for ships to a conflict on Taiwan.
The journal intervenes in the middle of increasing anxiety among the American allies on some of the Trump administration positions. Colby told the United Kingdom and other European allies to focus more in the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce their activity in Indo-Pacific.
Jeanne Shaheen, the best democrat of the senatorial committee of foreign relations, told the FT that the news of the administration which was moving away from Aukus “would be welcomed by acclamations in Beijing, which already celebrates the world withdrawal of America and our tied links with allies under President Trump”.
“The abolition of this partnership would further tarnish America’s reputation and would raise more questions among our closest defense partners on our reliability,” said Shaheen.
“At a time when we face growing threats from China and Russia, we should encourage our partners to increase their defense expenses and associate with them in the latest technologies – not to do the opposite.”
A person familiar with the debate on Aukus said that Canberra and London were “incredibly anxious” about the Akus review.
“Aukus is the most substantial military and strategic company between the United States, Australia and Great Britain in generations,” Campbell told Financial Times.
“Efforts to increase coordination, defense expenses and common ambition should be welcomed. Any bureaucratic effort to Saper Aukus would lead to a crisis of confidence among our closest security and political partners. ”
The Pentagon prompted Australia to increase its defense expenses. The American Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, urged Canberra this month to pass 2% of GDP expenses to 3.5%. In response, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: “We will determine our defense policy.”
“Australia’s defense expenses have gradually increased, but that does not do so as fast as other democratic states, or at a sufficient rate to pay both for Aukus and its existing conventional force,” said Charles Edel, an expert in Australia of the CSIS’s reflection group in Washington.
John Lee, a defense expert in Australia at the Hudson Institute, said the pressure increased on Canberra because the United States was focusing on China’s deterrence to invade Taiwan this decade. He added that the Australian navy would quickly be weakened if it did not increase defense expenses at 3% of GDP.
“This is unacceptable to the Trump administration,” said Lee. “If Australia continues on this trajectory, it is conceivable if not likely that the Trump administration freezes or will cancel pillar 1 of Aukus [the part dealing with submarines] Forcing Australia to focus on increasing its military funding over the next five years. »»
A person familiar with the exam said that he was not clear if Colby acted alone or in the context of a wider effort of the Trump administration. “The feeling seems to be that it is the first, but the lack of clarity confused Congress, other ministries and Australia,” said the person.
A spokesperson for the Pentagon said that the ministry examined Aukus to ensure that “this initiative of the previous administration was aligned with the president’s” America First “agenda”. He added that Hegseth had “clearly indicated his intention to ensure the [defence] The department is first focused on the Indo-Pacific region ”.
Several people familiar with the case said that the exam should take 30 days, but the spokesman refused to comment on the calendar. “Any change in the administration’s approach to Aukus will be communicated through official channels, if applicable,” he said.
A British government official said the United Kingdom was aware of the exam. “This makes sense for a new administration,” said the official, who noted that the Labor government had also carried out an Akus exam.
“We have reiterated the strategic importance of the British-American relationship, announced additional defense expenses and confirmed our commitment to Aukus,” added the official.
The Australian Embassy in Washington refused to comment.
