Kalshi data shows Democrats’ advantage in elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia
Pierre Debbas, managing partner of Romer Debbas, joins ‘Varney & Co.’ to discuss concerns about housing policies proposed by New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani and how they could potentially negatively impact the economy.
Traders at market prediction platform Kalshi now assign a significant probability to the scenario in which the top three Election Day winners come from the Democratic Party.
The prediction market platform reflects speculative betting, not how voters will actually vote on November 4.
Traders place democratic socialist’s chances Zohran Mamdani winning the New York mayoral race by 92% while former Gov. Andrew Cuomowho is running as an independent, is the second most likely candidate, with Kalshi punters giving him an 8% chance of landing the city’s highest office.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is at 1%.
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Kalshi online prediction market on the New York mayoral race. (Kalshi)
Trading volume, or the total amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $71.5 million.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist newcomer, has put affordability at the forefront of his campaign to take over as party leader. The largest city in America.
But his proposals have rattled Wall Street, where leaders have become among the most vocal critics of a program that includes free buses, city-owned grocery stores and a rent freeze for rent-stabilized tenants.
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New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani maintained a sizable lead. (Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images)
The clash highlights a growing divide between the city’s progressive visions and the financial sector that has long supported it.
Mayor Eric Adams ended his re-election campaign five weeks before Election Day. Adams announced his decision to leave the mayoral race in a nearly nine-minute video posted to social media.
ERIC ADAMS drops out of NYC mayoral race as Mamdani gains ground
Across the Hudson River in New Jersey, traders at the Kalshi Prediction Market give Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, former prosecutor and congressman, an 86 percent chance of winning. Meanwhile, traders give Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli a 16% chance.
A little over $11.8 million was wagered on this market.
Kalshi Online Prediction Market on the New Jersey Governor’s Race. (Kalshi)
In the final days of the campaign, Sherrill appeared alongside Democratic governors. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland – both widely considered potential 2028 presidential contenders.
Additionally, former President Barack Obama endorsed Sherrill’s gubernatorial campaign Friday.
SHERRILL PUTS EVERYTHING IN PLACE WITH OBAMA’S SUPPORT, STAR-STUDDED NEW JERSEY CAMPAIGN GROWS AS RACE TIGHTENS
Rep. Mikie Sherrill campaigned alongside Democratic giants in the final days leading up to Election Day. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
And in Virginia, Democratic candidate for governor Abigail Spanberger expected to win the job against his GOP challenger The attractive Earle-Sears.
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Kalshi traders place Spanberger with a 96% chance of winning the Virginia governor’s race and Earle-Sears with a 4% chance.
Kalshi Online Prediction Market on the Virginia Governor’s Race. (Kalshi)
The market recorded a trading volume of $3.6 million, according to Kalshi data.
President Donald Trump has not endorsed Earle-Sears, who currently serves as lieutenant governor of Virginia.
