Is AI really killing jobs in finance and banking? Wall Street Layoffs May Be More Hype Than Buyout
In a letter to shareholders last year, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon delivered an uncomfortable truth: AI “may reduce certain job categories or roles,” predicting ramifications on work similar to those of the printing press, the steam engine, electricity and the Internet. Tech became the prime suspect when JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanely made multiple rounds of layoffs in 2025. But experts say Fortune that an AI-powered recovery of finance jobs is largely smoke and mirrors. At least, for now.
People have rightly raised their eyebrows as banks downsize and invest billions in AI capabilities. Companies have already deployed the software in their operations, using nicknames for AI tools like “Socrates,” completing hours of junior-level analyst tasks in just seconds. Simultaneously, a Citigroup report reveals that 54% of finance jobs “have high potential for automation,” more than any other sector. But experts agree that AI-related layoffs have been insignificant so far. This year’s bank workforce reductions are the result of over-recruitment and economic uncertainty during the pandemic.
“If there’s a big company that might say, ‘Well, we’re not planning to hire as much because of AI,’ or maybe ‘We’re laying people off because of AI,’ I think there’s a little bit of smoke and mirrors there,” said Robert Seamans, director of the Center for the Future of Management at New York University. Fortune.
“AI is often the scapegoat, because it’s easier to blame AI than slowing consumer demand, or uncertainty due to tariffs, or maybe the poor HR strategy of recent years in terms of over-hiring as a result of COVID,” he continues, adding that “there’s a lot less political risk than blaming the president’s tariffs.”
Although AI is not yet capable of replacing bankers and consultants, problems could be on the horizon for marketers and accountants, experts say. Fortune. And elite business degrees are always worth it; the vast majority of top MBA students still lock in job offers shortly after graduation. But the outlook is dimming and banking workforces could stagnate for years as AI drives a huge productivity boom.
AI is stifling banking recruitment – and it could last for years
Although Wall Street has made headlines with its relentless round of layoffs this year, payrolls in the banking and financial sector have actually remained relatively stable.
“I think that the general [headcount] The trend observed in the banking sector over the last decade has been stable or even slightly declining. I don’t see that changing anytime soon,” says Pim Hilbers, managing director working in banking and talent at BCG. Fortune. “That doesn’t mean everyone stays in their job for life. I think we’re seeing a lot more mobility than in the past.”
So far, America’s largest financial institutions have not made major workforce reductions. Bank of America employed just four fewer workers at the end of the third quarter of this year, compared to 2024. During the same period, JPMorgan saw its workforce increase by 2,000 employees, and more than a third of the new employees were integrated into the company’s operations. Even Goldman Sachs, which has made several rounds of layoffs this year, employed 48,300 people in September, about 1,800 more than the year before.
Banks are not yet ready to lay off staff; experts say Fortune they hold back their workforce growth for as long as possible, relying on AI efficiency gains until they are forced to add more humans to the payroll. They predict this slow hiring period could last for years.
“A lot of banks I’ve talked to will say, ‘Look, I want to be more productive so I don’t have to hire the next 100 people to take out another billion dollars in loans.’ It’s probably [what] the majority of people think: I just won’t have to hire for 24 months, because I can get the productivity,” said Mike Abbott, industry group leader for Accenture’s banking and capital markets. Fortune.
“As attrition occurs, you don’t have to hire as many, but eventually you reach a point where you’ll have to hire again.”
Top MBA Students Still Succeed, But Job Offers Are Declining
MBA graduates are already feeling the hiring jitters instead of high employment rates. About 92% of Columbia Business School’s graduating class of 2,025 students received job offers, as did 86% of this year’s NYU Stern MBA graduates. Last year, 93 percent of Wharton students reported receiving work opportunities, and at Duke, 85 percent wrote an offer letter.
However, professors at these top business schools caution that the statistics don’t reflect all MBA programs. Columbia and NYU Stern, for example, are nestled in the epicenter of American finance: New York. Additionally, these elite universities have more resources to train students and increase their market value. Daniel Keum, associate professor of business at Columbia Business School, tells Fortune that Python is an “almost mandatory” course for all MBA students at the university.
And while MBA job offer rates remain high, take a look under the hood: The prospects aren’t as plentiful. Placement outcomes at each of America’s “magnificent seven” elite MBA programs, including Northwestern, MIT, Stanford and Harvard, have declined since 2021, a study finds. Bloomberg analysis. In 2021, only 4% of Harvard MBA students received no job offers within three months of graduating; in 2024, this figure increased to 15%. MIT saw a similar shift, with its share of graduates without offers increasing from 4.1% to 14.9% in three years.
Financial roles that are still safe and most at risk
As AI has evolved to take over the grunt work (preparing slideshow presentations, summarizing client data, and balancing checkbooks), there are fears that all junior-level analysts will soon take over. But not all finance industry jobs rely on the same basic skills, and experts say Fortune some roles are under threat in the age of AI disruption.
Surprisingly, entry-level financial workers who pay their dues and tediously craft bespoke PowerPoint presentations won’t be the first out. Keum tells Fortune that jobs in consulting and banking “resist automation quite robustly.” He explains that their professional tasks have little margin for error, because clients will not tolerate the slightest mistake. Additionally, every business transaction is different; no two acquisitions are the same, making it difficult to automate the human critical thinking needed for work.
“Banking advice [is] actually, it’s not too bad. Consider compliance issues where this 1% error is not tolerated. This cannot be accepted,” says Keum. “That’s why many analyst jobs at McKinsey and Bain are automated, but it’s still extremely human-intensive.”
Simultaneously, Abbott predicts an industry-wide increase in tech recruiting. About 76% of banks expect to increase their technology workforce with agentic AI, according to Accenture data shared with Fortune. But human workers in some vulnerable roles may see negative effects from AI advances. An estimated 73% of working time spent by U.S. bank employees is likely to be impacted by generative AI, according to a 2024 Accenture report, improving the productivity of early AI adopters by 22% to 30% over the next three years. Keum believes accounting and marketing roles are hardest hit.
“Accountants are not doing well,” Keum said Fortune. “For accounting it was, ‘Let’s make sure your numbers are correct based on the physical receipts entered. Now AI can do it very well… They’re hiring a lot less. So only the most experienced people survive.”
