Security guarantees arrive for Ukraine, putting Europe on the hook

At first glance, discussions on Monday between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders went well.

The American and Ukrainian leaders were photographed while looking at Jovial and smiling together – far from the extraordinary cry and public humiliation inflicted on Zelenskyy during his last trip to the White House in February.

The talks on Monday, which involved a series of European leaders seemed to make progress towards the end of the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, with Trump saying that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy would be organized, followed by a trilateral meeting that he would join.

The most important development result for kyiv and Europe, however, was Trump’s declaration that security guarantees for Ukraine are “provided” by European countries in “coordination with the United States”

Describing this as a “major step”, Zelenskyy later said that the security guarantee package for Ukraine – very coveted by Kiev leaders and considered as a means of deterrent in future Russian assault – will include a massive purchase of American weapons, with funding that would have been supported by Europe. The agreement would be “formalized on paper in next week at 10 days,” he said.

As for what safety guarantees could include, the detail is still rare. Trump commented at a post-Talks press conference that Europe “would take a lot of burden” for them, but said the United States would help and make it “very secure”.

In all cases, security guarantees probably mean that Europe, and that the so-called “coalition of the provisions” of the countries offering to supervise a peace agreement, is about to achieve what they have previously promised.

French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Tuesday that the “first security guarantee we are working on – and it is the most important – is a solid Ukrainian army, made up of several hundred men, well equipped, of defense systems and higher standards.”

“The second consists in having comfort forces, the British, the French, the Germans, the Turks and other loans to carry out these operations – not on the front line, not provocatively, but comfort operations in the air, at sea, and on earth. The aim is to send a strategic signal to the strategic signal in Ukraine is also our concern.

Jaroslava Barbieri, researcher at Chatham House, told CNBC on Tuesday that the overall atmosphere of talks on Monday was a “cautious optimism”, but there are many unknowns.

“However, we must say that the maximalist requests of the Kremlin in Ukraine have not changed and that there are therefore still a certain number of uncertainties on security guarantees, the details, which will do what, if there are deployments of troops, then where will they be parked and how long, what countries will contribute?” She asked.

European leaders have expressed apprehensions about the absence of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before a peace agreement was negotiated, but they seem willing to acquiesce, for the moment, in the final objective of peace and Ukraine and the security of Europe.

Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, told CNBC on Tuesday that Europe still seemed to have trouble being heard, saying that the block had not yet found its strength and its “ability to create a lever effect”.

“What came out of the meeting yesterday was that Europe asked the United States yesterday to continue its help, to ask for a cease-fire, to help any parking of the troops, then some of the leaders said:” Well, some Ukrainian territories could be lost, but it is a reality. “Well, it doesn’t look like Europe that finds its strength,” he said.

“It looks more like Europe that suited that” we are in a very weak position and we must please President Trump as much as possible and we have nothing to put on the table “”, he noted.

In addition, it is not clear if the Kremlin will even agree to direct talks with Zelenskyy. Putin’s presidential assistant, Yuri Ushakov, said on Monday that Trump and Putin had discussed “that it would be necessary to study the possibility of increasing the level of representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian parties”, but that no firm decision was made.

The future summits proposed between Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy would keep a process towards a possible resolution of the living conflict, but he would always follow the Russian scenario of a scenario of non-semi-secours, Holger Schmeding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank, was warned.

“Putin can already set difficult conditions for a meeting with Zelenskyy. And during a meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin’s main objective can be to blame the blame for any failure on Zelenskyy instead of accepting a truce or a final agreement. The result remains very uncertain,” he noted.