Oil prices rose slightly on Boxing Day as geopolitical risk increases in markets.
Friday December 26, 2025
The festive Christmas lull in oil trading saw oil prices post a weekly gain as geopolitical tensions helped push ICE Brent above the $62 a barrel mark. Venezuela and the potential chokehold on its heavy crude output remains the number one topic, but the Boxing Day US strikes in Nigeria could open a new front of optimism.
The United States continues to track Venezuelan oil tankers. The White House has ordered U.S. military forces around Venezuela to “quarantine” Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, just as the U.S. Coast Guard lamented lacking the forces to impose a full blockade after a botched Bella 1 seizure.
Chinese problems 1st Product quota batch. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued export quotas for refined products worth 19 million tonnes, alongside quotas for 8 million tonnes of ultra-low sulfur marine fuel, keeping volumes steady year-on-year as Beijing prioritizes domestic consumption.
Japanese refiners are considering expansion in Singapore. Japan’s top refiner Eneos (TYO:5020) is poised to become the favorite to buy Chevron’s stake in Singapore’s 290,000 b/d Jurong Island refinery, valued at around $1 billion, with Bloomberg reporting that a deal could be finalized very soon.
Kazakhstan suffers from drone strikes in Ukraine. Kazakhstan’s top export grade, CPC Blend, shipped from Russia’s Black Sea, saw its December outputs cut by a third to 1.14 million b/d as stormy winter conditions complicated repairs following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC port pier.
Tehran cuts gas supplies to Iraq. Iran cut off pipeline gas deliveries to Iraq this week, leaving Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities with a 4,500 MW electricity deficit and causing several forced shutdowns of generating units even though Iran regularly supplies 35 to 40 percent of Iraq’s gas and electricity needs.
Rating agencies become bullish on Pemex. Fitch Ratings raised Mexico’s national oil company Pemex’s long-term rating to AA, citing the Sheinbaum government’s desire to ease its debt woes through a recent $10 billion debt tender, just as Pemex announced $100.3 billion in third-quarter 2025 debt.
India received a waiver from the United States to continue imports from Rosneft. India’s largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, has reportedly received a one-month waiver from the Trump administration to continue buying Russian crude from sanctioned Rosneft, which would allow it to import 350,000 bpd in December.
BP finally finds a buyer for its Castrol unit. US investment firm Stonepeak and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board have agreed to buy a 65% majority stake in Castrol, BP’s lubricants division, for $6 billion, with the British major retaining a 35% minority stake following approval expected in late 2026.
Beijing bides its time with rare earth exports. Although China exported the second-highest monthly volume of rare earth magnets on record in November, at 6,150 metric tons, shipments to the United States were down 11% month-over-month as Beijing continued to restrict sales despite the trade truce between Trump and Xi.
