Ray Dalio highlighted leadership as a decisive factor in India’s growth trajectory, drawing a direct comparison between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic opening.
In an in-depth conversation with entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath, the founder of Bridgewater Associates argued that India, despite its challenges, is in a unique position to emerge as one of the fastest growing major economies over the next decade.
In referring to Deng, Dalio was referring less to ideology than to the ability to implement structural changes, notably through infrastructure expansion and economic reform. “What I mean by that is it creates change,” Dalio said, arguing that sustained investment in roads, logistics, digital systems and financial plumbing creates the foundation for long-term growth rather than short-term spurts.
Dalio said such reforms put India in the early stages of a decades-long expansion cycle, similar to that of China about 30 years ago. He cautioned, however, that strong economic momentum does not automatically translate into global dominance.
Despite rapid growth and improving fundamentals, Dalio noted that India’s global power projection remains lower than that of the United States and China, reflecting the gap between economic development and geopolitical influence. Closing this gap, he suggested, will depend not only on growth rates, but also on how effectively India converts its reforms and domestic strength into sustainable strategic capacity.
According to Dalio, the post-1945 world order – built around institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and the World Bank – is effectively over. What has replaced it is a system in which power, not rules, shapes outcomes.
“We don’t have that kind of world order anymore,” Dalio said, pointing to growing geopolitical fragmentation and declining trust among major powers. He argued that countries are increasingly preparing for confrontation, not only on the battlefields, but also at the level of trade, capital flows, technology and influence.
