The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said Tuesday that consumer price inflation (IPC) increased by 3.2% in annual slip in June, largely in accordance with the projection of the Ministry of Finance from 3% to 4% issued a day earlier.
On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.2% in June, reversing a drop of 0.2% in May.
In a note, Topline Securities said that the inflation of the full year of 4.49% is also good in our expected range from exercise 25.
The pace of inflation, he said, has increased from an average of 23.41% in FY24 mainly on the back of deflation in housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels of 3.28%-thanks to the drop in electricity prices by 30% (June 2025 vs June 2024).
The brokerage said that during fiscal year 26, it expects inflation to be around 6 to 7%on average.
With an inflation of 3.59% for June 2025, the actual rate was recorded at 650 SBPS and for the actual rate of financial year 26 is 400 to 500 bb, much higher than the historic Pakistan average from 200 to 300 SBPS.
“Any major difference in raw material prices compared to current levels can lead to a variation in inflation estimates,” added the note.
Data comes after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained its key interest rate unchanged at 11% in June.
The Central Bank said in its last monetary policy declaration according to which inflation was to show a certain short -term volatility but gradually stability in the target range from 5% to 7%.
The figures also occur for weeks after Pakistan has unveiled its annual budget, which included new income measures and subsidy discounts within the framework of efforts to obtain a long -term loan program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Analysts have warned that higher energy and tax costs could stir up inflation in the second half.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange increased by 2.3% over the day to end at a summit of 12,8475.7 points on Tuesday, the first day of the new fiscal year.
