China and India are trying to repair the tight links

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Moda Arourit in China this weekend with the bite of the American prices of Donald Trump still in mind.

Since Wednesday, prices on Indian products for the United States, such as diamonds and shrimp, are now 50% – which, according to the American president, is a punishment for the continuous purchase of Russian oil Delhi.

Experts say that levies threaten to leave lasting bruises in the Dynamic Exports sector of India and its ambitious growth objectives.

The Xi Jinping in China is also trying to rekindle a slow Chinese economy at a time when high -level American prices threaten to derail its plans.

In this context, the leaders of the two most populated countries in the world can both seek a reset in their relationship, which was previously marked by distrust, a large part of it motivated by border disputes.

“In simple terms, what is happening in this relationship is important for the rest of the world,” wrote Chietigj Bajpaee and Yu Jie de Chatham House in a recent editorial.

“India was never going to be the rampart against China that the West (and the United States in particular) thought it was … Modina’s visit to Modina marks a potential turning point.”

India and China are economic powers – the fifth and the second largest in the world respectively.

But with the growth of India which should remain above 6%, a saving of 4 dollars of dollars and 5 billions of dollars on the stock market, it is on the way to go to third place by 2028, according to the IMF.

“Although the world traditionally focuses on the most important bilateral relationship in the world, the United States and China, it is time that we focus more on how the second and third largest economies, China and India, can work together,” explains Qian Liu, founder and managing director of Wusawa Advisory, based in Beijing.

But the relationship is deeply difficult.

The two parties have an unresolved and long -standing territorial dispute – which means a much broader and deeper rivalry.

Violence broke out in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh in June 2020 – the worst period of hostility between the two countries in more than four decades.

The repercussions were largely economic – a return of direct flights was withdrawn from the table, visas and Chinese investments were suspended, which led to slower infrastructure projects, and India prohibited more than 200 Chinese applications, including Tiktok.

“The dialogue will be necessary to better manage the expectations of other powers which consider India China as a key factor in the wider stability of Asia,” said Antoine Levesques, main member of defense, strategy and diplomacy in the South and Central Asia in Iiss.

There are also other fault lines, including Tibet, Dalai Lama and water disputes in terms of China to build the largest hydroelectric energy project in the world through a river shared by the two nations, as well as tensions with Pakistan after the attack by Pahalgam.

India is not currently enjoying good relations with most of its neighbors in South Asia, while China is a key trading partner for Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

“I would be surprised if a Byd factory arrives in India, but there can be sweet victories,” said Priyanka Kishore, founder and main economist of the research company Asia Decoded.

It has already been announced that direct flights will resume, there may be more relaxations on visas and other economic offers.

However, the relationship between Delhi and Beijing is “an uncomfortable alliance to be sure”, notes Ms. Kishore.

“Remember that at one point, the United States and India met to balance China,” she adds.

But India is completely perplexed with the United States and its position: “It is therefore an intelligent decision – and feeds the multipolar narrative in which India and China believe”.

Modi goes to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – a regional organization aimed at projecting a vision of the alternative world to that of the West. Members include China, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia.

In the past, India has minimized the importance of the organization. And criticisms say that he has not given substantial results over the years.

The meeting of the Defense Ministers of June did not agree to agree on a joint declaration. India has raised objections on the omission of any reference to the deadly attack on April 22 against Hindu tourists to the cashmere administered by the Indians, which has led to the worst fights for decades between India and Pakistan.

But experts say that the slowdown in Delhi’s relationships with Washington has prompted India to rediscover the utility of the OCS.

China, on the other hand, will appreciate the optics of South World Solidarity in the middle of Trump’s price chaos.

The grouping of the BRICS, of which China and India are also members, has attracted Trump’s anger – with him threatening to slap additional prices on the members of the group in addition to their negotiated prices.

Modi met the last time that Xi and Russia Vladimir Putin at the Brics summit in Russia in October 2024. Last week, officials of the Russian embassy said Moscow hoped that trilateral talks with China and India will take place soon.

“Take advantage of each of their advantages – the manufacturing prowess of China, the forces of the service sector of India and the allocation of natural resources of Russia – they can work to reduce their dependence on the United States to diversify their export markets and finally reshape global trade flows,” said Bajpaee and Yu in their editorial.

Delhi also takes advantage of other regional alliances, Modi stopping in Japan on the Chemin de la China.

“ASEAN and Japan would host closer cooperation between China and India. This really helps in terms of supply chains and the idea of ​​doing Asia for Asia,” said Kishore.

India continues to depend on China for its manufacture, because it approves raw materials and components from there. He will probably seek lower import duties on goods.

According to experts, the strict industrial policies of India have so far prevented the passage of the China supply chain to the countries of Southeast Asia.

There is a case for the strong partnership, explains Ms. Kishore, where India is launching to make more electronics.

She emphasizes that Apple makes airpods and portable devices in Vietnam, and iPhones in India, and there would therefore be no overlap.

“Faster visa approvals would also be an easy victory for China. It wants market access to India either directly or by investments. It is an American narrowing market, it is already flooded with Anase markets, and many Chinese applications like Shein and Tiktok are prohibited in India”, explains Ms. Kishore.

“Beijing would welcome the opportunity to sell 1.45 billion people.”

Given the complexity of the relationship, it is unlikely that a meeting will change a lot. There is a long way to go to improve the links of China-Indies.

But Modine’s visit to China could repair a certain animosity and send a very clear signal to Washington that India has options.