Best NHL Bets Tonight: Top Hockey Betting Picks and Predictions for November 18

We still have plenty of time to turn our NHL betting season around.

These are Deadspin’s top NHL betting picks for Tuesday, November 18.

Blues at Maple Leafs

Here we have a battle between two declining and underperforming teams. The Leafs traditionally own the regular season, then struggle in the playoffs, much to the chagrin of their monstrous, hockey-crazed fan base. Thanks to the Blue Jays, their spotlight hasn’t been as bright, but they are a mess as they have lost 5 in a row and are second to last in the East with 18 points in 19 games. Luckily for them, it’s still pretty bunched up and they’re only 4 points out of the playoffs.

Their metrics suggest that this is a slightly below average team, as they have an expected goal share of 48.4% and an actual goal share of 48.2%. But that’s with everyone available and at the moment they are without their best player Auston Matthews as well as starting goaltender Anthony Stolarz. Further down the depth chart, Nicholas Roy, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo remain absent.

Now, xG numbers are sometimes misleading, as teams ahead can adopt more defensive postures and teams behind push to score. When I adjust these xG stats to situations where it’s a goal or a draw, the Leafs’ xG share drops to 44.4%, 5th worst in the league.

This contrasts sharply with the Blues who have an xG% of 52.88% in these places, the 5th best in the league. This also highlights what ails them as they have allowed 42 goals in these situations compared to 30.6 expected goals. As this suggests, they suffer from horrible goaltending. This mainly came from an unusually shaky Jordan Binnington and it allowed the Blues to win just 16 points in 19 games and 6 points shy of the playoffs.

Something has to give in this game and I’ll go with a healthier Blues team at more money and bank on the ‘good’ Binnington coming in.

Blues ML (+110 Fanatics)

Blue Jackets at Jets

This one is really about price as these teams are much closer than public perception. Well, at least this season since Winnipeg won the President’s Trophy last year.

They are 11-7 and have the metric of a weak team with an xG% of 46.97%. They also employ the best goaltender in the league, Connor Hellybuyck, so can get away with it to some extent. Columbus also gets good play on net from both goalies.

Elvis Merzlikins starts tonight and has a 90.8% save rate this season. Columbus gets 48.8% xG%, which isn’t great, but it’s better than Winnipeg and they don’t give up worse in net. I really like the price here, even with the Blue Jackets on the 2nd night of a back-to-back game, as the odds give them a 37.7% chance of winning and they should be closer to the very small dogs in my honest opinion.

Blue Jackets ML (+165 BetRivers)