The American economy is upheaval, thrown into chaos and uncertainty by something that has fundamentally changed the way companies operate and hire. No, not artificial intelligence. In fact, new research of the Yale Budget Lab suggests that AI has not had more impact on economic opportunities than previous technological breakthroughs, despite fears of moving millions of workers overnight. Instead, at least for the moment, it is the policies of the Trump administration that seem to cost people the most economical opportunity.
Although many ODO has been made of the potential of artificial intelligence since the release of Chatgpt in November 2022, there is not yet much evidence to suggest that technology puts people unemployed. According to the Yale Budget LAB, a labor market study in the last 33 months shows little evidence that AI automation has pushed people out of mass jobs, or even changed the demand for cognitive work in the economy.
This does not mean that AI has no impact on the job market. Yale researchers found that AI tools lead to a faster change in the “professional mixture” – due to the type of work that people do – than previous technologies such as the introduction of computers or the Internet. Thus, people can change jobs or how they do them faster due to AI, but they don’t see less job because of this. But even this change does not occur at an inexplicable pace – it occurs barely at a faster rate than the study control marker, the 2016 labor market.
Asked about the impact of AI on the job market, Cynthia Meis, director of career services at Iowa Tippie College of Business, told Gizmodo, there has been “a lot of media threw, not yet a real impact”. But, she noted that there are indirect influences of AI which can contribute to a feeling of slowdown in the labor market. “The” threat “of AI has many companies to do more cautiously. Rather than developing aggressively, they adopt a conservative approach to the workforce, which slows down not only hiring but also the recruitment process, “she explained.
This is also wreaking havoc on job seekers, who are stuck in a cycle of speaking and waiting with employers who are impatient to work but who are made to go through slower hiring processes. “Employers tell us that they want several points of contact with candidates, such as [a] Career Fair, a virtual session, perhaps an informational conversation with current employees before going ahead, “said Meis.” I think it is worth mentioning that it is frustrating and exhausting for candidates. “”
Although AI does not kill jobs, jobs are killed. The ADP payroll company, in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, found that employers in the US private sector have reduced 3,000 jobs in August, a downward revision of the 54,000 estimated additions that an initial report found – a figure that already suggested a stagnant labor market before becoming negative. The first figures in September are even worse, showing a loss of 32,000 roles.
The Outplacement Challenger company, Gray and Christmas recently published data that showed that economy companies have announced 117,313 new jobs in September, a drop of 71% compared to the same period last year and the September registered worst. The year to date, the company has only seen 205,000 jobs added through American employers, the lowest period of the year. The company noted that employers have announced (but not necessarily executed on) plans to reduce 946,426 jobs since January. It is the highest ever recorded since the pandemic in 2020.
“It is very likely that job removal plans will exceed one million for the first time since 2020 and for the ninth time in our series. Previous periods with numerous job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of self-sakes that cost job and technology jobs, “said Andy Challenger, vice-president and work expert for Challenger, Gray and Christmas, said in a declaration.
Again, the reason for these losses is not AI. Challenger data show that automation and implementation of AI are responsible for around 20,000 job deletions so far this year. On the other hand, the greatest contributors can be linked almost directly to the actions of the Trump administration. The company has found “DOGE actions”, in particular direct reductions in employment in government agencies, as well as the loss of funding for non -profit and research organizations, have caused nearly 300,000 planned layoffs.
It is clear that the Trump administration does not appreciate the government’s work, as evidenced by the fact that he and the members of his administration wanted to threaten permanent layoffs in the middle of the current government closed. But its policies do not only injure federal employees – they also in the private sector. Challenger data show that economic and economic conditions, including inflation and prices imposed by Trump, is the second most cited reason for labor reductions, the cause of nearly 210,000 jobs to date.
Even in industries that the Trump administration would have intended to put prices on foreign manufacturing with its punishment policies, the results are in red. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the manufacturing sector has lost 42,000 jobs in total since the announcement of Trump’s “liberation day” on April 2, and industry experienced less growth than in 2024.
Trump also promised that his mass expulsion campaign and repression against immigrant workers, which has led to inhuman and probably illegal treatment of migrants, would create more employment opportunities and higher wages for Americans. Nothing such has materialized. For the first time since 2021, there are more people looking for work than there are jobs available in the country, according to the latest jobs of the Bureau of Labor and investigation of turnover. Salaries growth has also slowed down for low -wage workers across the country since Trump took office, according to ADP data, while the best employees continue to see their salary increase, resulting in widening wage gap.
What happened, however, is an increased level of uncertainty among employers who desperately need qualified work. The new Trump administration policy which forces people to deposit an H1-B visa (which allows foreign workers from specialized professions to work in the United States) to pay fees of $ 100,000 already gives a break to employers. “Another area that attracts a lot of attention is international hiring, in particular the H-1B process.
Although wage growth does not come from people who need it most, the cost of living is climbing – again, the direct result of Trump policies. Inflation of projects at the University of Michigan will reach 4.7% in the coming year, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that consumer prices increase, up 2.7% in the past year. The cost of living costs more while wages stagnate and opportunities decrease. All this is inextricably linked to the economic agenda of the Trump administration.
If there is an economic effect that AI is worth monitored, it is likely that all spending in the sector artificially prevent the bottom of the fall in the economy. Last month, several analysts, including George Saravelos de Deutsche Bank, suggested that the country would already be in recession without the expenses associated with the AI industry – the expenses that many believe that it is not sustainable and unlikely to produce the necessary yields to justify all the money paid in data centers and other projects.
No wonder Trump seems to love AI. It can artificially generate the image of a healthy economy. Do not expect this hallucination to last.
