The prices of oint -term contract contracts climbed on Friday at the rear of the attack on Israel against Iran, but there was no indication of petroleum -related facilities that have been affected by the several -component offensive by the Israeli army.
“Non -nuclear energy infrastructure has not been expressly threatened by any part so far,” said S&P Global Community Insights (SPGCI) (NYSE: SPGI) in a summary of “Factbox” of the main developments related to energy resulting from the Israeli attack.
ULSD Diesel ultra-bas (ULSD) on the CME Commodity stock market settled at $ 2,3587 / Gallon, an increase of 17 CT / G or 7.77%.
Friday ULSD regulations have been the highest since February 27.
The increase of a day of 17 CTS / G has been the highest since January 10. The last time the ULSD increased until December 2022 when it increased by more than 18 CTS / g. But the gain that day was 5.97%; Today was 7.77%.
The highest ULSD levels have followed an increase in global crude market markets, which first tend to increase or drop more percentage than products such as petrol or diesel in reaction to real or potential disturbances in supply or demand for oil. But that did not happen on Friday, ULSD increasing more than the two keywags in percentage.
Brent, the global gross reference, increased by $ 4.87 / barrel on the CME, an increase of 7.02% to be at $ 74.23 / B. West Texas Intermediate, the US gross reference index, climbed $ 4.94 / B at $ 72.98 / B. This marked a percentage of gain of 7.26%.
What is at stake thanks to any widening of the war to include the Iranian ability to produce crude has been stated by SPGCI in its box of facts. The SPGCI segment, which shelters the inherited activity Platts, said that Iran had produced around 3.25 million B / J of crude in May.
Among the countries of the OPEC + group of oil exporters, only Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq have produced more. The United States is the largest gross producer in the world with a production of approximately 13.24 million b / d, according to the latest Energy Information Administration report.
But since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the takeover by its Islamic leaders – and its violation with most other Arab oil producers – the nightmare scenario for oil consumers has always been that Iran would take measures to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Part of the oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Iran all go through the Hormuz Strait.
But despite these fears which have now been in place for over 45 years, a closure has never occurred. On Friday, several analysts said that this would not happen this time either.
The Hormuz Strait is “obviously the main concern,” said Paul Sankey of the independent research company Sankey Research in an interview with CNBC. But he added that if Iran took measures to close the passage, “all hell will be unleashed. I’m sure Donald Trump is going to be at the forefront of this outburst of hell.”
But Sankey does not fully minimize the impact of Israeli attacks. He said that the “speed of the move we have seen is actually as fast as we saw it during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
“Recently, the oil market has not been characterized by reacting as much at the geopolitical risk as you think,” he said. “On this occasion, we have a reaction from Russia-Ukraine. So you have to ask yourself, why? “
Sankey said that if there was a loss of production from Iran, it will be difficult to turn to the American strategic oil reserve to fill the gap. The reserves were returned by the Biden administration to compensate for the loss – Real and the Russian oil planned after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The other option to fill all gap, said Sankey, is a spare capacity in several countries in the Middle East; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq. But the problem with this spare capacity is that a large part is behind the Hormuz Strait. “I think the market tariffs a real fear of spare capacity,” said Sankey. “This is why this decision was so aggressive.”
Richard Joswick, head of SPGCI’s short -term petroleum analysts, said: “The key is whether oil exports will be affected.”
He noted that when Iran and Israel went back and forth with attacks last year, oil prices increased at the start. The higher levels did not stay long once it has become clear that the attacks had no impact on the offer.
But the SPGCI report also cited JP Morgan analysts who declared that the “worst case scenario” of the loss of production would be a drop in Iranian supplies of 2.1 million b / d. This could increase the price of the dated Brent – the physical reference which is taken from the market for several different cruudes – at $ 120 to $ 130 / b.
Retail prices take time to react to large and long -term prices, although wholesale prices should spend the same day to reflect higher -long prices.
Pilot Flying J puts its retail pump prices available via a downloadable spreadsheet. At 2 p.m. Friday, there was no indication of an increase in retail prices following the Israeli attack; Any increase was low and a quantity that would be considered as part of the normal daily fluctuation.
This lack of movement is not surprising since the attack has just occurred. When disturbances in physical supplies occur, as with a hurricane or pipeline breakdown, price tips can be faster. It has not yet happened.
Patrick Dehaan, chief of oil analysis of Gasbuddy, who follows retail prices, said in an article on X that Diesel could increase between 10 and 30 CTS / G in the following two weeks.
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The post diesel and gross increase more on the attack on Israel, although no Iranian oil installation had appeared first on the waves of freight.
