The halfway of 2025 is today at noon, which marks 182.5 days after 365 days. The S&P 500 benchmark increased by 5.4% so far, even after taking a dive worthy of Greg Louganis in April after the announcement of the “liberation day” of President Donald Trump.
The officials of the Federal Reserve, on the other hand, pushed the interest rate reductions – to the eternal sorrow of Trump. On Tuesday, the president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, made his declaration most energetic while blaming the prices for the heist, but also left the room for maneuver for the following 182.5 days.
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The S&P 500 won its first record in more than four months on Friday. He marked an encouraging sign that the markets are no longer particularly concerned about the worst scenarios imagined initially when Trump announced that he would cry about prices on business partners. The actual American rate rate, based on policies announced this year, is now 13%, compared to 3% at the start of the year, according to Goldman Sachs. Nevertheless, it is far from the tumultuous but fortunately short prices of 145% prices on China in April.
Speaking on Tuesday the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, said that Powell, as explicitly as ever, that the commercial tumult of 2025 is the reason why the Fed has not reduced the rates: “We have taken the hand when we saw the size of the prices and essentially all the inflation forecasts for the United States have increased materially as a consequence of tariffs.” The Fed has maintained its stable key borrowing rate of 4.25% to 4.5% since December, although officials have suggested that it can be reduced to 3.5% over the next year if inflation is ascending. The latest projections of the Federal FED FED market committee indicate two discounts before the end of the year. Tuesday saw economic data which, for better or for worse, could encourage intervention:
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Basic prices increased by 2.7% in May, the trade department announced last week, which is slightly higher than the inflation target of 2% of the Fed, a main concern linked to their rate adjustment. But Tuesday saw mixed labor market signals: the labor statistics office said that job offers increased in May from 374,000 to 7.77 million, most since November, but real hires dropped from 112,000 to 5.5 million. The manufacturing, on the other hand, contracted the fourth consecutive month in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
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In addition to stable inflation, a weakened economy could encourage Fed to reduce rates to stimulate activity, which, in both cases, would make money cheaper from companies. Powell said that a “solid majority” of Fed officials think that it “becomes appropriate later this year to start reducing rates” and left the door open to take political measures at any time, declaring that it “would not do any table meeting or put it directly on the table”.
