Why does China do not care about a closure of the Hormuz Strait

While the United States has rained bombs and missiles on Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday – entering the war between Israel and Iran – Beijing seems to be firm in its support for its longtime ally in Tehran.

However, its support will probably be tempered by its limited weight as a peace broker in the region, and the experts collected if the oil strangulation points tighten the United States.

Beijing has come closer to Iran in recent years, the two countries regularly cooperating military exercises and signing a 25 -year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.

The Iranian population of nearly 91 million people, much more than 9.8 million Israel, associated with its abundant reserves of crude oil, made it a natural partner in the initiative of the belt and the road to China, that the Global Times, a spokesperson for the Beijing government, describes as a means of “countering American”.

The main economic interest of China is however in its access to Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most essential roads for the world flows of crude oil.

According to the US Energy Information Information Information Information Information Administration Information Administration, crossed the Strait in 2024, or a fifth of world consumption. About half of Beijing oil imports have evolved by the key route – using a bypass system to bypass Western banks, shipping services and Yuan transactions to avoid triggering sanctions.

That said, China will probably keep its “all-terrain hands in all cases,” said Neo Wang, Chinese economist and Stratege to Evercore Isii, because of its limited influence on Israel and its strategic calculation on the involvement of Washington in the conflict.

Beijing, involved in a trade war with the United States, can find value in any chaos in the Middle East because they would pose “a greater distraction for Washington,” added Wang.

China was committed to supporting Iran shortly after the attack on Israel on June 12, which Beijing condemned as a “violation of sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Iran”.

But despite this initial demonstration of support for Iran, Beijing’s rhetoric has moved to become more measured, unless it denounces the military actions of Israel, but focused on the brokerage dialogue and a cease-fire.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart during a telephone call that Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable”, but abstained to notice the “condemning” in the appeal.

Beijing has largely avoided the “direct condemnation of Israel while remaining diplomaticly diplomatic with Iran,” said analysts of the Eurasia Group political consultancy company, because it seeks to “contain tensions and prevent the spin -offs of the conflict in the wider region – which could affect its economic and strategic interests”.

The United States strikes Iran “has given China an important subject of discussion: it is America, not China, which threatens world order and peace,” said Shehzad Qazi, CEO of China Beige Book.

On Sunday, American Secretary of State Marco Rubio called China to dissuade Iran from closing the Hormuz Strait.

While many expect Beijing to do exactly, some have suggested that a strangion point block could be favorable to China, because it is better prepared to absorb the blow that the American and European Union, and that China could easily turn to other alternative sources of oil.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the main sources of Chinese oil are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although a considerable part of Malaysia exports is in fact re -ethical or transferred from Iran.

Robin Brooks, principal researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that “China will be happy to see a big peak in oil prices if it destabilizes the United States and Europe”.

Echoing this point of view, Andrew Bishop, World Political Research Manager at Signum Global Advisors, said: “China may not be so furious to pay more for oil from other sources, if that means that the United States suffers even more.”

Answering a question about Iran’s potential closure of the Strait by Iran, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry told journalists during a regular briefing on Monday that it was in the common interest of the international community to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding sails.

On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament supported the decision to close the Strait, pending final approval by its National Security Council.

China may have the hope of acting as a peacemaker, based on its mediation of a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. But Israel will probably be skeptical of China’s neutrality as mediator, analysts said, citing Beijing’s close ties with Iran and the concerns concerning the provoking of the administration of Trump.

The UN Ambassador to China, Cong Fu, targeted the United States at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Sunday, saying that the country firmly “condemns” American attacks against Iran and the bombing of nuclear installations.

FU also distinguished Israel and called for efforts to end hostilities. “The parties to the conflict, in particular Israel, should reach an immediate cease-fire to prevent a spiral escalation,” said FU, according to reading.

Andy Rothman, founder of the Sinology LLC advisory company, said that he doubted Beijing would try to negotiate a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, but that could still “discourage Iran to retaliate militarily against the United States”

“Because it would destabilize the region and weaken the world economy, which are not in the interest of China,” he added.