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We first had the “red wall”, then the “blue wall” and now the “turquoise wall” – that of Nigel Farage promises to erect for its reform of the British party in traditional work areas. The electoral turbulence in Great Britain is marked by analysts repeating the political map. But these large brush descriptions hide the complexity – and the challenge for work that tries to wake voters who are ready to change allegiance. He also launches intriguing political dilemmas.
The local elections on Thursday could increase already high tremors. Many voters who supported work during the general elections of July cooled towards the party that large energies have passed to think about how to put them back – in particular these targeted by Reform UK.
These “-curious” voters could however be difficult to keep without repelling others. And it is even more a challenge that some of the Cruder stereotypes suggest. A purely “faragist” program is not to their liking – according to Steve Akehurst at Research Initiative Persuasion UK, which ordered surveys and discussion groups to discover what makes them vibrate.
The concern about immigration is the main priority problem by the main supporters of faging and strictly changing or changing former work voters – in particular small boats and asylum hotels. But although this confirms that Downing Street is right to worry about reform attacks against the agenda, Akehurst’s research reveals significant differences on other subjects.
The waves of labor showed a minimum of interest in the reform attacks against the zero net objective, for example – even when they were questioned about the energy costs. While 63% of those who voted the reform in 2024 were opposed to Net Zero, 60% of reformist labor voters in the survey were in favor.
With a risk of support even more support for the left of the Victorious Coalition of Labor 2024, Akehurst argues that it is a “free blow” to maintain the momentum of the green energy agenda, keeping the two series of Waveres on the side. It reports an observation which explodes a certain number of stereotypes of the red wall: three to four times more work voters in these regions of midlands and northern England are in danger of being tempted by centrist lectures like those classified as reforms, he says (the Greens are up in other places).
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Research has taken uneasiness among these voters on other aspects of reform. They like Farage but do not like his friendship with American President Donald Trump and his position on Ukraine, and they wonder if his party is fully respectable. “In discussion groups, people struggle in their own mind to find out if the reform is correct or a little extreme,” explains Akehurst. Sixteen percent are worried about racist nuances.
Offering more hope to Labor deputies, there are also signs in persuasive data (see graph) that anti -fating tactical voting could support their party: enough voters in the areas of the red wall could decide to explicitly support the holder to prevent reform – even the Conservatives seem ready to do so.
With some pleading on a field to reformist voters who have (somewhat comical) nicknamed “hard work”, these ideas contain a opportune warning. The left flank of the party bubbles with dissatisfaction but attracts less attention to Westminster while the deputies and the devices obsessed about Farage. It is possible to keep these unhappy voters while using the preform-fellow, but this will require a meticulous political mix. The two groups also seem attracted to a traditional labor argument on support for public services funded by taxation (this is not true for the main support of the reform – see graphic).
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Unfortunately for a government whose expenditure options are so constrained, there is still one thing that the left side of work and those who have been tempted by the reform have in common: they are repelled by everything that resembles austerity. And it is the real dilemma of work.
Miranda.green@ft.com
