October NY World Sugar # 11 (SBV25) is now down -0.04 (-0.25%), and London ice sugar # 5 (SWV25) is down -1.00 (-0.19%).
The prices of sugar today are slightly lower but remain above the hollows of 5 weeks of Tuesday. The signs of stronger sugar production in Brazil undermines the prices of sugar. Last Thursday, UNICA reported that the production of central-South sugar in Brazil in the first half of July increased by + 15% in Y / Y to 3.4 mmt. In addition, the quantity of sugar cane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sweets increased to 54% to 50% at the same period last year.
The prospects for higher sugar production in Brazil are Brazil for sugar prices. Datagro said last Monday that dry weather in Brazil had encouraged the country’s sweets to increase their cane crushing, diverting more profitable sugar production from the cane production rather than ethanol.
The prospects for higher sugar exports from India are negative for prices after Bloomberg indicated that India could allow local sweets to export sugar during the next season, which begins in October, because abundant monsoon rains can produce a bumper sugar harvest. The Meteorological Department of India reported today that the cumulative monsoon rain in India is 500.8 mm, or 4% above normal in August 4. In addition, the Indian association of sugar and bioenergy manufacturers said last Thursday that it would request permission to export 2 mmt of sugar in 2025/26.
The prospects for the higher sugar production in India, the second world producer, are lower for prices. On June 2, the National Indian Federation of Cooperative Sugar factories provided that the production of sugar in 2025/26 of India would climb + 19% in year at 35 mmt, citing a larger planted cane area. This would follow a drop of -17.5% in Y / Y in the production of sugar in India in 2024/25 to a minimum of 26.2 mmt, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
The prices of sugar have withdrawn in the past four months, New York sugar falling at a hollow of 4.25 years last month and London sugar sliding at a hollow of 4 years, driven by the expectations of a surplus sugar during the 2025/26 season. On June 30, the merchant of the raw materials Czarnikow projected a surplus of global sugar of 7.5 mmt for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, provided that global sugar production in 2025/26 would increase by + 4.7% in Y / Y to a record of 189.318 mmt, with world sugar stocks at 41.188 mmt, up 7.5% in y / y.
The signs according to which the recent slide in sugar prices at 4 years has triggered a demand for demand is positive for sugar prices. June sugar imports into China increased 1,435% to 420,000 Mt. In addition, Coca-Cola has agreed to use cane sugar in coke drinks sold in the United States instead of high fructose corn syrup, which could increase American sugar consumption by + 4.4% to 11.5 mmt from 11 mmt currently, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Sugar prices also have support for reducing sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Thursday that the cumulative production of central sugar from Brazil in Brazil in 2025/26 in the middle of July dropped from -9.2% in y / y / y to 15.655 mmt. Last month, CONAB, the government agency for forecasting Brazil cultures, said that the production of Brazilian sugar 2024/25 fell from -3.4% in annual sliding to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugar cane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The prospects for higher sugar production in Thailand are lower for sugar prices. On May 2, the office of Thailand of the Cane and Sugar Commission indicated that the production of sugar in 2024/25 in Thailand increased by + 14% in annual sliding to 10.00 mmt. Thailand is the third world sugar producer and the second largest sugar exporter.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has increased its forecasts for 2024/25 global sugar deficit at a high -5.47 mmt summit at 9 years on May 15, against a February forecast of -4.88 mmt. This indicates a tightening market after excess global sugar 2023/24 of 1.31 mmt. ISO has also reduced its global sugar production forecasts 2024/25 to 174.8 mmt compared to a February 175.5 mmt forecast.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report published on May 22, has planned that global sugar production 2025/26 would increase + 4.7% in Y/Y to a record of 189.318 mmt and that global consumption of human sugar 2025/26 would increase + 1.4% in year to a record of 177.921 MMT. The USDA also provided that global sugar stocks in 2025/26 would increase + 7.5% in annual sliding at 41.188 mmt. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that the production of sugar in 2025/26 of Brazil would increase + 2.3% in Y/Y to a record of 44.7 mmt FAS predicted that the production of sugar in 2025/26 of India would increase + 25% in year to 35.3 mmt due to the favorable monsoon monsoon and an area would increase sugar. The FAS predicted that the production of sugar in 2025/26 of Thailand will increase + 2% in annual sliding to 10.3 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not (directly or indirectly) have positions in any of the titles mentioned in this article. All information and data of this article are only for information purposes. This article was initially published on Barchart.com
