Why is Trump targeting Brazil

A message from US President Donald Trump landed on Wednesday as a grenade in Brazil, bringing the relationship between the two countries to his lowest.

Trump is committed to imposing prices in Brazil at a rate of up to 50%. He accused the country of “attacks” against American technological companies and of leading a “witch hunt” against the former far -right president Jair Bolsonaro, a long -standing ally who faces prosecution for his alleged role in a conspiracy aimed at canceling the Brazilian elections of 2022.

This decision follows a new series of political fighting between Trump and the current Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He also reached a relationship that was already tense.

Trump had previously threatened with members of the Brics group – of which Brazil is a part – with prices, accusing these countries of anti -American posts.

The block includes India, Russia and China and has grown to include Iran. It was designed to counterbalance the influence of the United States in the world.

Lula responded to Trump’s pricing threat in an article on X, writing that “Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of guardianship”.

Trump triggered a large prices – or import tax program – since his return in January. He maintains that they will stimulate American manufacturing and protect jobs, although he also used them to continue political ends.

It also seems to be true in the case of Brazil.

Lula’s government said it was going to make a difference – probably meaning prices on American products. But it is not clear how it would happen, nor if Brazil has the economic weight to deal with the consequences of an escalation.

In the meantime, many Brazilians ask why Trump has targeted their country and how this new saga could take place.

Brazil is one of the relatively rare countries that bought more from the United States than it sells – a configuration that theoretically suits Trump’s commercial agenda.

Given this imbalance, the tariff threat was considered by many Brazilian analysts and politicians as a manifest gesture of support for Jair Bolsonaro, the former president.

This was underlined by Trump’s letter, which has strongly criticized the Brazilian government and the Bolsonaro in the Supreme Court in the Court which focuses on an alleged coup attempt two years ago.

A kind of Trump Bolsonaro assistance was already expected by Brazilian politicians – but not on this scale.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the Brazil congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace – in an apparent attempt to overthrow the elections won by Lula a few months earlier.

Bolsonaro denies any link with this event, which has been considered by many as a Brazilian version of attacks against the American Capitol building by Trump supporters two years ago. Trump, too, was the subject of an investigation in the aftermath of the American riot – and condemned those who tried to continue him.

Bolsonaro supporters asked for a kind of Trump support for months. His son Eduardo took a leave from the Brazil congress, where he served as a representative and moved to the United States. His goal was to rally the support of his father from the inner circle of Trump and his wider Maga movement (Make America Great Again).

In another intervention that was considered pro-Bolsonaro, Trump also accused the Brazilian government of “insidious attacks against free elections, and the fundamental rights of the freedom of expression of the Americans”, including the censorship of “American social media platforms”.

As part of an ongoing investigation into the spread of disinformation in the country, the Supreme Court of Brazil has, in recent years, ordered the blocking of several social media accounts – many of them belonging to the supporters of Bolsonaro.

Brazil authorities and companies rush to calculate the economic impact of potential prices, but political consequences could also be enormous.

The words used by Trump suggest that Bolsonaro has a political proximity to the American president, of which few Brazilian or Latin American politicians could dream.

This will be considered a powerful approval for Bolsonaro, who wants to present himself again for the president – although it was forbidden to do so until 2030.

Bolsonaro supporters have made the political capital of the prices, suggesting that the blame lies firmly with the current president.

“Lula has put the ideology before the economy, and this is the result. Responsibility is in power. The stories will not solve the problem,” said Governor of São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas, an ally who has an ally.

Despite the apparent positive consequences for Bolsonaro, some analysts and politicians say that Trump’s gesture could turn against him.

The United States is the second most important trading partner in Brazil, behind only China.

And some of the sectors that could be the most affected by a new cycle of American prices are those which are closely aligned on the political base of Bolsonaro – in particular agro -industry. There are growing concerns about the potential impact on Brazilian exports of oranges, coffee and beef in the United States.

Rather than playing in the hands of Bolsonaro, Trump’s pricing threat could serve as a rescue buoy for Lula, which has struggled to lower popularity and the difficulties in dealing with the Congress.

A survey published in May suggested that 55% of Brazilians disapprove of Trump. And a new wave of prices should not change this feeling.

Just after Trump’s announcement, Lula and other members of the Brazilian left reacted by playing a nationalist air – speaking of sovereignty and trying to blame Bolsonaro for the possible economic consequences of the prices.

Even among centrist politicians, Trump’s threats have been largely negative.

“No citizen, in particular the representatives elected by the people, can tolerate foreign aggression against Brazil, whatever the alleged justification. It is time for real patriotism,” wrote Alessandro Vieira, a centrist senator who generally has a critical position against Lula.

Some analysts argue that this could generate a rally-le-flat effect for Lula in Brazil’s political disputes.

“Even Lula’s criticisms can see Trump’s decision as an attack on national sovereignty and independence of the judiciary,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor at the Getúlio Vargas (FGV) Foundation and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for the International Peace Reflection Group in Washington.

The Brazil’s presidential election in October 2026 is still outside, but some analysts are already making comparisons with Canada, where a right -wing candidate has lost this year against a more centrist opponent who has openly campaigned against Trump.

Bolsonaro cannot present themselves to the presidency because of its conviction by the Supreme Court, and the allies already dispute which candidate will represent Brazilian law in the polls.

On social networks – where a large part of the political debate occurs – the memes of the Bolsonaro allies are shared by thousands, often with words of criticism. One of them shows the probable Tarcísio candidate wearing a Trump Maga hat.

With his threat of prices, Trump caused a potential storm not only in the economy of Brazil – but also his political future.